BITCOIN UPDATE: AMBIGUITY
This is the Daily chart of bitcoin . We failed at 6800 resistance, which has given way to a moderate drop, into a level of weak support. There are two ways of reading this pattern – an unresolved inverse H&S pattern, or a signal to lower lows ahead, invalidating the H&S .
This brings me to a core concept of technical analysis . The point of TA is to make the ambiguous clear. However, ambiguity is the norm in markets. Rarely does a pattern look ‘clean’. Does that mean that TA cannot be relied upon? NO! It simply means that it is unreliable to trade patterns that aren’t clean!
IF bitcoin breaks down to test prior lows, the H&S in invalidated. That is clarity.
IF bitcoin breaks up to test the neckline of the potential H&S , that is also clarity.
Right now, there is no trade. Fortunes have been lost trading the anticipation of a move, rather than trading the move itself. I will not lose money accordingly. I am currently short from 6700, give or take, but will happy get stopped out. Should we break lower, I will simply let profits run.
If you’re not short bitcoin from higher, I caution against shorting here because we are in the latter stages of a multi-month bear trend. On the other hand, if there is a bull alive, there will be plenty of time to get on board…. 50k bitcoin by year end right???
My fundamental view is that institutional money is waiting of the sidelines to buy cheap, which is lower. Excessive bullishness is yet to be washed out. Having said that, I believe we are closer to a low in TIME but not in PRICE.
AMBIGUITY = NO TRADE